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张云兰,潘良浩,苏治南,邱广龙,范航清.广西红树林生态旅游安全动态评价——以金海湾景区为例[J].广西科学院学报,2024,40(3):277-287. [点击复制]
- ZHANG Yunlan,PAN Lianghao,SU Zhinan,QIU Guanglong,FAN Hangqing.Dynamic Evaluation of Mangrove Ecotourism Safety in Guangxi-A Case Study of the Golden Bay Scenic Area[J].Journal of Guangxi Academy of Sciences,2024,40(3):277-287. [点击复制]
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| 广西红树林生态旅游安全动态评价——以金海湾景区为例 |
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张云兰1,2,3, 潘良浩2,4, 苏治南2,4, 邱广龙2,4, 范航清2,4
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| (1.广西大学林学院, 广西森林生态与保育重点实验室, 广西南宁 530004;2.广西科学院, 广西海洋科学院(广西红树林研究中心), 广西红树林保护与利用重点实验室, 广西北海 536000;3.广西财经学院经济与贸易学院, 广西南宁 530003;4.自然资源部北部湾滨海湿地生态系统野外科学观测研究站, 广西北海 536015) |
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| 摘要: |
| 红树林生态旅游是协同推进红树林保护和利用的重要产业，而当前红树林生态旅游安全评价以定性研究为主，缺乏定量研究。因此，本研究以金海湾景区为例，开展广西红树林生态旅游安全动态评价的量化研究。研究采用旅游生态足迹(Tourist Ecological Footprint,TEF)模型测算2016-2023年金海湾景区旅游生态足迹和旅游生态承载力，通过旅游生态盈亏、旅游生态可持续指数和旅游生态压力指数动态评价景区红树林生态旅游安全；同时，利用GM(1,1)模型预测2024-2028年景区人均旅游生态足迹，并采用回归函数核算景区游客接待量的临界值。结果表明，2016-2023年景区旅游生态足迹快速增长了58.71%，旅游生态承载力较为稳定，能满足游客旅游活动需求；但如果排除新型冠状病毒感染疫情的影响，景区红树林生态旅游发展已处于安全状态的临界值。2028年景区人均旅游生态足迹将达到4.86平方米/人；景区每年游客接待量的临界值为73.95万人次，根据目前发展态势，2026年的游客接待量将达79.77万人次。因此，要控制人均旅游生态足迹和游客接待量，进而保障红树林生态旅游安全。 |
| 关键词: 红树林生态旅游 旅游生态足迹模型 安全评价 价值实现 |
| DOI：10.13657/j.cnki.gxkxyxb.20241108.007 |
| 投稿时间：2024-09-16修订日期：2024-10-22 |
| 基金项目:国家社科基金重大项目(22&ZD134)，国家社会科学基金西部项目(24XJY027)，广西哲学社会科学规划研究课题项目(22BJY011)，广西高等学校千名中青年骨干教师培育计划人文社会科学类项目(2021QGRW058)，广西科学院改革发展专项项目(2024YGFZ504-102)，广西科学院基金项目(2023GMRC-02)，“向海经济研究院”公开招标课题(2024XHJJ17)，陆海经济一体化协同创新中心项目(2023XTZX014)和应用经济学广西一流学科建设项目(2024XKA17)资助。 |
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| Dynamic Evaluation of Mangrove Ecotourism Safety in Guangxi-A Case Study of the Golden Bay Scenic Area |
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ZHANG Yunlan1,2,3, PAN Lianghao2,4, SU Zhinan2,4, QIU Guanglong2,4, FAN Hangqing2,4
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| (1.Guangxi Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Conservation, Forestry College, Guangxi University, Nanning, Guangxi, 530004, China;2.Guangxi Key Laboratory of Mangrove Conservation and Utilization, Guangxi Academy of Marine Sciences (Guangxi Mangrove Research Center), Guangxi Academy of Sciences, Beihai, Guangxi, 536000, China;3.College of Economics and Trade, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning, Guangxi, 530003, China;4.Observation and Research Station of Coastal Wetland Ecosystemin Beibu Gulf, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beihai, Guangxi, 536015, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Mangrove ecotourism is an important industry to promote the protection and utilization of mangrove forests.At present,the safety evaluation of mangrove ecotourism is mainly based on qualitative research and lacks quantitative research.This study took the Golden Bay Scenic Area as an example to carry out quantitative research on the dynamic evaluation of mangrove ecotourism safety in Guangxi.The Tourism Ecological Footprint (TEF) model was used to estimate and calculate the tourism ecological footprint and tourism ecological carrying capacity of the Golden Bay Scenic Area from 2016 to 2023,and the security status of mangrove ecotourism in the scenic areas was dynamically evaluated through the tourism ecological profit/loss,tourism ecological sustainability index and tourism ecological pressure index.At the same time,the GM(1,1) model was used to predict the per capita tourism ecological footprint of scenic areas from 2024 to 2028,and the regression function was used to calculate the critical value of tourist reception in scenic areas.The results showed that the tourism ecological footprint of the scenic areas increased rapidly by 58.71% from 2016 to 2023,and the tourism ecological carrying capacity was relatively stable,which could meet the needs of tourists' tourism activities.However,if the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic was excluded,the development of mangrove ecotourism in the scenic areas was close to the critical value of a safer state.In 2028,the per capita tourism ecological footprint of the scenic areas would reach 4.86 m2/person.The critical value of annual tourist reception of the scenic areas was 739 500,but according to the current development trend,the number of tourist reception in 2026 would reach 797 700.Therefore,it is necessary to control the per capita tourism ecological footprint and the tourist reception,so as to ensure the safety of mangrove ecotourism. |
| Key words: mangrove ecotourism tourism ecologicalfootprint model safety evaluation valuerealization |
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