| 引用本文： |
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苏志,李艳兰,涂方旭.广西冬季极端最低气温的概率分布模型选择及其极值和重现期计算[J].广西科学,2002,9(1):73-77. [点击复制]
- Shu Zhi,Li Yanlan,Tu Fangxu.Selection of Probability Distribution Models and Calculation of Extremes and Reproduction Periods of Winter Extremely Minimum Temperature in Guangxi[J].Guangxi Sciences,2002,9(1):73-77. [点击复制]
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| 摘要: |
| 为了解广西冬季极端最低气温概率分布类型和分析广西不同重现期的冬季极端最低气温值,根据广西88个气象站1951~2000年(1951年以后建站的站,取建站~2000年)冬季极端气温序列,分别用Gumbel型极值分布、Gumbel型极值分布、Gumbel型极值分布、正态分布、双正态分布函数进行拟合,并按柯尔莫哥洛夫检验和ω2检验方法进行拟合优度检验。结果表明,桂林等55个站遵从双正态分布,河池等29个站遵从正态分布,南宁等4个站遵从Gumbel型极值分布,说明用双正态分布、正态分布和Gumbel I型极值分布函数作为广西冬季极端最低气温的分布函数效果较好。广西15年一遇的极端最低气温-2℃等值线与广西龙眼、荔枝的分布北界比较接近。 |
| 关键词: 极端最低气温 概率分布 重现期 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2001-11-09修订日期：2001-12-17 |
| 基金项目:广西自然科学基金资助项目(桂科自0007023)。 |
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| Selection of Probability Distribution Models and Calculation of Extremes and Reproduction Periods of Winter Extremely Minimum Temperature in Guangxi |
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Shu Zhi, Li Yanlan, Tu Fangxu
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| (Guangxi Climate Center, Minzhu Dadao, Nanning, Guangxi, 530022, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To investigate the probability distribution of winter minimum temperature and the reproduction period of winter extremely minimum temperature in Guangxi,the functions,GumbelⅠextreme distribution,GumbelⅡextreme distribution,Gumbel Ⅲ extreme distribution, normal distribution,binormal distribution are used to fit the winter extreme temperature series from the 88 meteorological stations in the period from 1951 to 2000(from establishment to 2000 for the stations set up after 1951) in Guangxi. The fitness is checked up by Dn(x) and ω2. There are 55 stations include Guilin station being subject to binormal distribution,29 stations include Hechi station being subject to normal distribution,4 stations include Nanning station being subject to GumbelⅠextreme distribution. It is suggested that binormal distribution,normal distribution and GumbelⅠextreme distribution are better to be used to describe the winter extremely minimum temperature distribution in Guangxi. The -2℃ isoline of 15-year-reproduction of extremely minimum temperature is close to the north border of distribution of longan and lichi. |
| Key words: extremely minimum temperature probability distribution reproduction period |
