| 摘要: |
| 为揭示滇桂黔石漠化片区耕地时空演变特征及驱动因素,选取河池市、百色市、曲靖市及黔西南苗族布依族自治州为研究区域,基于1990—2020年30m分辨率耕地数据,综合运用耕地利用动态度、GIS空间分析、景观格局指数及地理探测器等方法,对研究区耕地变化过程及其驱动因素进行系统分析。结果表明：(1)研究区内耕地主要分布在西部与东南部,1990—2020年研究区耕地面积整体呈增长趋势,累计增加1673.23km2。(2)1990—2020年研究区各市(县)的斑块密度指数整体下降,最大斑块指数与聚合度指数整体上升,整体呈由分散向集中整合的发展趋势。(3)第一产业产值、年平均气温、海拔、乡村人口数量以及坡度为滇桂黔石漠化区域耕地变化的主要驱动因素,各因子之间以双因子增强作用为主。未来在制定耕地利用和保护政策时,需要综合考虑自然、社会经济多种因素,以实现耕地可持续利用和区域石漠化有效治理。 |
| 关键词: 耕地变化 景观格局 地理探测器 石漠化片区 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2026-06-01修订日期：2026-07-13 |
| 基金项目:广西重点研发计划(桂科 AB22080080)；广西重点研发计划(桂科 AB23026015) |
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| Spatial and temporal evolution of arable land in Yunnan-Guangxi-Guizhou rocky desertification area over the past 30 years and its driving forces |
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ZENG Shunqi, OUYANG Yanmei, WEI Naifei, TENG Yonghe
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| (Guangxi Remote Sensing Spatial Information Technology Co Ltd,Nanning Guangxi) |
| Abstract: |
| To explore the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land and its driving factors in the rocky desertification area of Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guizhou, this study selected Hechi City, Baise City, Qujing City, and Qianxinan Buyei and Miao Autonomous Prefecture as the research areas. Based on the Chinese 30 m annual cultivated land dataset, this research employed the cultivated land use dynamic degree, landscape pattern indices, and GIS to analyze changes in cultivated land at the county level in terms of quantity, landscape pattern, and spatial transformation. Additionally, the Geo-detector model was used to identify driving factors. The results are as follows: (1) Cultivated land in the study area is mainly distributed in the western and southeastern parts, showing an overall expansion trend from 1990 to 2020, with a total increase of 1673.23 km2. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the patch density index of the study area showed a decreasing trend, while the largest patch index and the aggregation index generally increased, indicating that during this period the cultivated land became more integrated, gradually consolidating from fragmented patches into larger contiguous plots with a more concentrated distribution. (3) The primary factors driving cultivated land changes in the rocky desertification regions of Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guizhou include primary industry output value, annual average temperature, altitude, rural population size, and slope. The interactions among these factors exert a comprehensive influence on the spatiotemporal changes of cultivated land through a dual-factor enhancement mechanism. Over the past 30 years, the steady increase in cultivated land resources in the study area reflects the effective control of rocky desertification. Future policies on cultivated land use and protection should comprehensively consider both natural and socio-economic factors to achieve sustainable cultivated land utilization and effective regional rocky desertification management. |
| Key words: Cultivated land change Landscape pattern Geo-detector Rocky desertification region in Yunnan–Guangxi–Guizhou |
