| 摘要: |
| 海岸带是陆地与海洋相互作用的过渡地带，明确其土地利用变化规律及影响因素，对海岸带合理开发、保护和管理有重要作用。本研究以钦州湾海岸带为研究区，基于2010、2015、2020、2023年4期土地利用数据，运用土地利用转移矩阵、动态度模型、土地利用程度指数等方法，分析其土地利用时空演变特征，并结合主成分分析法，识别关键影响因素。结果表明，①钦州湾海岸带土地利用类型以耕地和林地为主，2010—2023年研究区耕地、草地、水域面积持续萎缩，建设用地显著扩张，增幅达137.28%。②土地利用转移以耕地转为林地、建设用地为主，综合土地利用动态度逐年上升，2020—2023年达到0.71%，变化最为剧烈；土地利用程度持续提升，港口区增长最为显著。③主成分分析提取3个主成分，分别代表社会经济发展驱动力、生态保护驱动力、农业资源驱动力，其中社会经济发展是主要影响因素。本研究结果可为生态敏感型海岸带地区的可持续发展提供参考，为区域国土空间规划及陆海统筹战略实施提供依据。 |
| 关键词: 土地利用 驱动力 主成分分析 钦州湾海岸带 |
| DOI：10.13657/j.cnki.gxkxyxb.20260819.006 |
| 投稿时间：2025-07-17修订日期：2025-11-03 |
| 基金项目:广西科技重大专项(桂科AA24263011)和国家自然科学基金项目(42071135)资助。 |
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| Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Land Use in Qinzhou Bay Coastal Zone |
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PEI Xuefang1,2, LUO Huayan3, HU Baoqing1
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| (1.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf (Nanning Normal University), Ministry of Education, Guangxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Intelligent Simulation, Nanning Normal University, Nanning, Guangxi, 530001, China;2.School of Geographic Science and Planning, Nanning Normal University, Nanning, Guangxi, 530100, China;3.College of Resources and Environment, Beibu Gulf University, Qinzhou, Guangxi, 535000, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The coastal zone is a transitional zone where land and ocean interact with each other.Clarifying the patterns of land-use change and their influencing factors plays a crucial role in the rational development,protection,and management of coastal zones.In this study,the Qinzhou Bay coastal zone was taken as the research area.Based on land-use data from four periods (2010,2015,2020,and 2023),the land use type transfer matrix,dynamic degree model and land use degree index were used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use.Combined with principal component analysis,the key influencing factors were identified.The results showed that: ①The land use types in the coastal zone of Qinzhou Bay were mainly cultivated land and forest land.During the period from 2010 to 2023,the areas of cultivated land,grassland,and water bodies continuously decreased,while construction land expanded significantly,with an increase of 137.28%.②The transfer of land use was primarily characterized by the conversion of cultivated land into forest land and construction land.The comprehensive land use dynamic degree increased year by year,reaching 0.71% during the period of 2020—2023,which witnessed the most drastic changes.The land-use degree continued to rise,with the most significant increase observed in the port area.③Three principal components were extracted through principal component analysis,which respectively represent the driving forces of socio-economic development,ecological conservation,and agricultural resources.Socio-economic development were found to be the primary determinants among these influencing factors.The results of this study can provide a reference for the sustainable development of ecologically sensitive coastal areas,and provide a basis for the implementation of regional territorial spatial planning and land-sea integrated strategy. |
| Key words: land use driving force principal component analysis Qinzhou Bay coastal zone |
