| 摘要: |
| 红树林生态旅游是红树林生态系统服务价值实现的主要模式,是协同推进红树林保护和利用的重要产业。以金海湾景区为例开展广西红树林生态旅游安全动态评价,为广西及其他红树林分布区发展红树林生态旅游提供决策参考。本研究采用旅游生态足迹模型测算2016-2023年金海湾景区旅游生态足迹和旅游生态承载力,通过旅游生态盈亏、旅游生态可持续指数和旅游生态压力指数动态评价景区红树林生态旅游安全状态,利用GM(1,1)模型预测2024-2028年景区人均旅游生态足迹,采用回归函数核算景区游客接待量的临界值,并有针对性地提出景区红树林生态旅游发展的优化策略。结果表明,2016-2023年景区旅游生态足迹快速增长了58.71%,旅游生态承载力较为稳定,能满足游客旅游活动需要。但如果排除新冠肺炎疫情影响,景区红树林生态旅游发展的可持续状态不断减弱,已接近较安全状态的临界值；2028年景区人均旅游生态足迹将达到4.86m2/人；景区每年游客接待量的临界值为73.95万人次,但根据目前发展态势,2026年的游客接待量将达79.77万人次。因此,要通过减少人均旅游交通生态足迹和人均餐饮生态足迹控制人均旅游生态足迹,要实施分时段预约购票制度和票价政策控制游客接待量,进而保障红树林生态旅游安全。 |
| 关键词: 红树林生态旅游 旅游生态足迹模型 安全评价 价值实现 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-09-16修订日期：2024-11-01 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Dynamic Evaluation of Mangrove Ecotourism Safety in Guangxi -- A Case Study of Golden Bay Scenic Area |
|
ZHANG Yunlan
|
| (Guangxi University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: |
| Mangrove ecotourism is the main model to realize the value of mangrove ecosystem services and an important industry to promote the protection and utilization of mangrove forests. Taking the Golden Bay Scenic Area as an example, the dynamic assessment of mangrove ecotourism safety in Guangxi was carried out to provide decision-making reference for the development of mangrove ecotourism in Guangxi and other mangrove distribution areas. In this study, the tourism ecological footprint model was used to estimate the tourism ecological footprint and tourism ecological carrying capacity of the Golden Bay Scenic Area from 2016 to 2023, and the security status of mangrove ecotourism in the scenic area was dynamically evaluated through the tourism ecological profit/loss, tourism ecological sustainability index and tourism ecological pressure index. The GM(1,1) model was used to predict the per capita tourism ecological footprint of the scenic area from 2024 to 2028, and the critical value of tourist reception was calculated by regression function, and the optimization strategy of mangrove ecotourism development was proposed. The results showed that the tourism ecological footprint of the scenic area increased by 58.71% during 2016-2023, and the tourism ecological carrying capacity was stable, which could meet the needs of tourists" tourism activities. However, if the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic was excluded, the sustainable state of the development of mangrove ecotourism in the scenic area continued to weaken and was close to the critical value of the safe state. In 2028, the per capita tourism ecological footprint of the scenic area would reach 4.86m2/person; The critical value of annual tourist reception of the scenic area was 739,500, but according to the current development trend, the tourist reception in 2026 would reach 797,700. Therefore, it is necessary to control the per capita tourism ecological footprint by reducing the per capita tourism traffic ecological footprint and the per capita catering ecological footprint, and to implement the time-segment booking and ticket purchase system and ticket price policy to control the tourist reception, so as to ensure the safety of mangrove ecotourism. |
| Key words: mangrove ecotourism, tourism ecological footprint model, safety evaluation, value realization |
