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何凤婴,何安琪,胡盛红,申玉琢,林川翔,常晓晴,石小伟.海南岛“三区空间”格局演变特征及多情景模拟预测[J].广西科学,2025,32(2):386-398. [点击复制]
- HE Fengying,HE Anqi,HU Shenghong,SHEN Yuzhuo,LIN Chuanxiang,CHANG Xiaoqing,SHI Xiaowei.Evolution Characteristics and Multi-scenario Simulation and Prediction of “Three-Zone Space” in Hainan Island[J].Guangxi Sciences,2025,32(2):386-398. [点击复制]
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| 海南岛“三区空间”格局演变特征及多情景模拟预测 |
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何凤婴1, 何安琪1, 胡盛红1, 申玉琢1, 林川翔2, 常晓晴3, 石小伟4
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| (1.中国热带农业科学院科技信息研究所, 海南省热带作物信息技术应用研究重点实验室, 海南 海口 571101;2.海南省农垦设计院有限公司, 海南 海口 570206;3.东北农业大学公共管理与法学院, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030;4.滁州学院经济与管理学院, 安徽 滁州 239000) |
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| 摘要: |
| 随着城镇化进程加速和人类活动范围不断扩大，海南岛的城镇空间、农业空间与生态空间(以下简称“三区空间”)矛盾日益突出，作为重要的生态保护区，科学调控土地资源要素格局对实现生态、经济协调发展至关重要。本研究基于2000年、2010年、2020年3期土地利用数据及自然、社会经济数据，分析2000-2020年海南岛“三区空间”的演变特征，并设置自然演变、城镇空间优先、农业空间优先和生态空间优先4种情景模拟2030年的演变趋势。结果表明：①海南岛“三区空间”分布呈现显著区域差异，2000-2020年生态空间和农业空间持续缩减，城镇空间增幅达69.07%。②“三区空间”相互转化特征明显，以生态空间与农业空间的转换为主，且集中分布在沿海地带。③不同情景模拟显示，自然演变情景下，相较于2010年，农业空间和生态空间分别减少0.50%和0.75%，而城镇空间增加363.49 km2；城镇空间优先情景下，城镇空间侵占生态空间的速度加快，相较于2020年增幅达44.92%；农业空间优先和生态空间优先情景下，城镇空间的扩张速度均相对放缓，耕地和生态用地得到有效保护。因此，实施耕地保护和生态空间优先政策，优化耕地、林地和建设用地的比例，对促进海南岛生产、生活、生态功能协调发展具有重要作用。本研究可为海南岛国土空间结构优化和土地管理政策制定提供科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 三区空间 土地利用 PLUS模型 多情景模拟 海南岛 |
| DOI：10.13656/j.cnki.gxkx.20250624.019 |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-23修订日期：2024-09-28 |
| 基金项目:2023年安徽高校人文社会科学研究项目重点项目(2023AH051571);滁州学院科研启动项目(2023qd63)和“多维创新驱动安徽城乡高质量融合”科研创新团队项目(2022AH010069)资助。 |
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| Evolution Characteristics and Multi-scenario Simulation and Prediction of “Three-Zone Space” in Hainan Island |
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HE Fengying1, HE Anqi1, HU Shenghong1, SHEN Yuzhuo1, LIN Chuanxiang2, CHANG Xiaoqing3, SHI Xiaowei4
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| (1.Key Laboratory of Practical Research on Tropical Crops Information Technology in Hainan, Institute of Scientific and Technical Information, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agriculture Sciences, Haikou, Hainan, 571101, China;2.Hainan State Farms Design Institute, Haikou, Hainan, 570206, China;3.School of Public Administration and Law, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150030, China;4.School of Economics and Management, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou, Anhui, 239000, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Hainan Island has experienced intensified conflicts between ecological,agricultural,and urban spaces(hereinafter referred to as “Three-Zone Space”) due to the accelerating pace of urbanization and the expanding scope of human activities.Scientifically and rationally regulating the land resource layout is crucial for achieving coordination between ecological progress and economic development.The evolution characteristics of the “Three-Zone Space” in Hainan Island from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed based on the land use data and the natural and socio-economic data in 2000,2010,and 2020.Four simulation scenarios (natural evolution,urban space priority,agricultural space priority,and ecological space priority) were set up to predict the evolution trends of the “Three-Zone Space”.The results are summarized as follows.① There were significant regional differences in the distribution of the “Three-Zone Space” in Hainan Island.Between 2000 and 2020,the areas of ecological and agricultural spaces gradually decreased,while that of urban space increased by 69.07%.② The mutual conversion was evident among the “Three-Zone Space”,with the main conversion occurring between ecological and agricultural spaces,mostly concentrated along the coastal areas.③ The simulation of four scenarios exhibited different trends.Under the natural evolution scenario,agricultural and ecological spaces decreased by 0.50% and 0.75%,respectively,while urban space expanded by 363.49 km2.Under the urban space priority scenario,urban space encroached into ecological space in an accelerated manner,with an increase of 44.92%.Under the agricultural and ecological space priority scenarios,the expansion of urban space was slow,with farmland and ecological land being effectively protected.Therefore,implementing farmland protection and ecological space priority policies and optimizing the proportion of farmland,forestland,and built-up land are essential for the coordinated development of production,living,and ecological functions in Hainan Island.The findings provide a reference for optimizing the “Three-Zone Space” structure in Hainan Island and formulating land management policies. |
| Key words: Three-Zone Space land use PLUS model multi-scenario simulation Hainan Island |
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