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郑臣玲,李文庆,史明鸣,陈凯云,陈家辉,黄媛.不同气候情景下独花报春属在中国的潜在分布格局变化预测[J].广西科学,2025,32(2):236-244. [点击复制]
- ZHENG Chenling,LI Wenqing,SHI Mingming,CHEN Kaiyun,CHEN Jiahui,HUANG Yuan.Prediction of Potential Distribution Pattern Changes of Omphalogramma Franch.under Different Climate Scenarios in China[J].Guangxi Sciences,2025,32(2):236-244. [点击复制]
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| 不同气候情景下独花报春属在中国的潜在分布格局变化预测 |
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郑臣玲1,2, 李文庆3, 史明鸣3, 陈凯云3, 陈家辉3, 黄媛1,2
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| (1.云南师范大学生命科学学院, 云南 昆明 650500;2.云南师范大学生物能源持续开发利用教育部工程研究中心, 云南 昆明 650500;3.中国科学院昆明植物研究所, 云南 昆明 650204) |
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| 摘要: |
| 气候变化是影响植物分布的主要因素。独花报春属(Omphalogramma Franch.)植物生态位相似，在我国的分布区狭窄，多个物种处于濒危状态。预测不同气候情景下该属物种潜在地理分布范围的变化对保护物种多样性具有重要的意义。本文基于独花报春属9种植物的106条分布记录以及14个高分辨率的环境变量，利用最大熵(Maximum Entropy，MaxEnt)模型构建独花报春属物种在我国潜在适宜生境的预测模型，识别关键环境变量，并借助GIS技术分析独花报春属物种在冰期、当前和未来不同气候情景下地理分布格局的变化。结果表明：独花报春属物种潜在适生区预测模型的精确度非常高[接受者操作特性(ROC)曲线下方面积(AUC)值=0.974]，当前的潜在适生区主要分布在云贵高原西部、川西高原至四川盆地、喜马拉雅山脉部分地区。温度年较差、等温性、最低月均辐射量、年降水量、海拔和土壤湿度是影响独花报春属地理分布格局的主要环境变量。在末次冰盛期，独花报春属物种经历了种群的收缩并将喜马拉雅山脉东段和横断山作为避难所；在中世纪以后，种群向西南方向扩张。未来随着全球变暖，独花报春属物种的潜在适宜分布范围将进一步收缩，丧失的生境主要集中在云南南部热带气候区。建议在以后的保护工作中重点监测此区域的种群变化，采取合理的就地和迁地保护措施，以有效保护独花报春属物种。 |
| 关键词: 独花报春属 最大熵(MaxEnt)模型 气候变化 潜在分布 适宜生境 |
| DOI：10.13656/j.cnki.gxkx.20250624.004 |
| 投稿时间：2024-05-31修订日期：2024-07-05 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目(31960050)资助。 |
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| Prediction of Potential Distribution Pattern Changes of Omphalogramma Franch.under Different Climate Scenarios in China |
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ZHENG Chenling1,2, LI Wenqing3, SHI Mingming3, CHEN Kaiyun3, CHEN Jiahui3, HUANG Yuan1,2
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| (1.School of Life Sciences, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, Yunnan, 650500, China;2.Engineering Research Center of Sustainable Development and Utilization of Biomass Energy, Ministry of Education, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, Yunnan, 650500, China;3.Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, Yunnan, 650204, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Climate change is the primary factor influencing plant distribution.The plants of Omphalogramma Franch.have similar ecological niches and a narrow distribution range in China,and several species are endangered.Predicting the potential geographic distribution range changes of species belonging to this genus under different climate scenarios is crucial for biodiversity conservation.The data from 106 records of nine Omphalogramma Franch.species and 14 environmental variables with high resolution were used to construct a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model for predicting potential habitats in China,and the key environmental variables were identified.The GIS technology was employed to analyze the distribution pattern changes under different climate scenarios across the glacial period,the current,and the future.The results showed that the model had very high accuracy [Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) value＝0.974].Currently,the potential habitats of Omphalogramma Franch.primarily exist in the western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,western Sichuan Plateau to the Sichuan Basin,and portions of the Himalayan Mountains.The temperature annual range,isothermality,mean UV-B of lowest month,annual precipitation,elevation and topsoil moisture were identified as the main environmental variables affecting the geographic distribution pattern of Omphalogramma Franch..During the last glacial maximum,these species underwent population declines,seeking refuge in the eastern Himalayas and the Hengduan Mountains.Post Middle Ages,populations expanded southwestward.In the future,global warming is expected to reduce the potential suitable range of this genus,with habitat losses concentrated in the tropical climate region of southern Yunnan.It is recommended that future conservation efforts should focus on monitoring population changes in this region and implementing appropriate in situ and ex situ conservation measures to effectively protect species of Omphalogramma Franch.. |
| Key words: Omphalogramma Franch. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model climate change potential distribution suitable habitats |
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