| 摘要: |
| 金毛狗脊(Cibotium barometz)集药用、经济价值于一身,是极具发展潜力的药用植物,被列为国家二级保护植物。受人类活动及全球气候变化的影响,金毛狗脊栖息地受到严重威胁,预测其潜在适生区空间变化对其资源的保护和利用具有现实意义。通过Maxent模型和地理信息系统(Arcgis),结合65条金毛狗脊在中国的有效分布记录和16个环境变量,预测金毛狗脊在中国潜在适生区。结果表明:(1)受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)为0.968,说明Maxent模型有很好的预测能力；(2)金毛狗脊适生区主要分布在云南、广西、广东、海南、贵州、湖南、福建、浙江、台湾等省市；(3)最干季降水量、年降雨量、最冷月份最低温度、最潮湿季节的平均气温、最湿季降水量和海拔对金毛狗脊地理分布有关键影响；(4)未来时期金毛狗脊适宜生境重心逐渐向湖南方向转移。研究结果可为金毛狗脊的就地、迁地保护以及人工种植选址提供理论依据。 |
| 关键词: 金毛狗脊 Maxent模型 中国 潜在适生区 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2025-04-15修订日期：2025-05-21 |
| 基金项目:云南省红河热带农业科学研究所青年人才成长资金(HHS2024005) |
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| Prediction of potential habitat area of Cibotium barometz in China based on maxent model |
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MENG ZHENC CHENG, YANG TIAN YAN, ZHANG JIAN CHUN, ZHI JIA ZENG, ZHU WEN, ZHAO ZI AI, CHEN LIN YANG, FENG YU YUN
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| (Honghe Tropical Agricultural Institute of Yunnan Hekou) |
| Abstract: |
| Cibotium barometz as a second-class protected plant has great medicinal and economic value,However, the impact of human activities aswell as global climate change seriously threatenedthe habitat of Cibotium barometz .Therefore,it is of great singnificance to predict the changes in the potential suitabale areas of Cibotium barometz. Based on Maxent model and Geographic Information System (Arcgis), we combined with 65 effective distribution records of Cibotium barometz in China and 16 environmental variables selected, this study the potential suitable habitat areas for Cibotium barometz in China were predicted. The results showed that: (1) the area under curve (AUC ) was 0.968, indicating that the Maxent model had good predictive ability; (2) The suitable areas of Cibotium barometz were mainly distributed in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, Guizhou, Hunan, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Taiwan; (3) Precipitation of Driest Quarter, Annual Precipitation, Min Temperature of Coldest Month, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter, and altitude were a key impact on the geographical distribution of Cibotium barometz; (4) In the future, the suitable habitat center of Cibotium barometz gradually shift would toward to Hunan. The research results provided a theoretical basis for the in-situ and ex-situ protection of Cibotium barometz, as well as the selection of artificial planting sites. |
| Key words: Cibotium barometz Maxent model China Potential suitable habitat |
