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  • 侯堋,王其松,彭石.风暴潮漫堤风险分析——以茅洲河为例[J].广西科学,2021,28(1):37-45.    [点击复制]
  • HOU Peng,WANG Qisong,PENG Shi.Risk Analysis of Flood Inundation by Storm Surge:A Case Study of Maozhou River[J].Guangxi Sciences,2021,28(1):37-45.   [点击复制]
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风暴潮漫堤风险分析——以茅洲河为例
侯堋1,2, 王其松1,2, 彭石3
0
(1.水利部珠江河口动力学及伴生过程调控重点实验室, 广东广州 510611;2.珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院, 广东广州 510611;3.广州市南沙明珠湾开发建设管理局, 广东广州 510611)
摘要:
重现期风暴潮灾害评估及最大可能风暴潮预测,对风暴潮灾害防灾减灾具有重要意义。本研究在分析实测资料基础上,构建南海潮汐风暴潮耦合模型,对历史上对茅洲河影响较大的风暴潮灾害进行计算分析,在验证准确的基础上对近20 a的106场风暴潮进行计算,得到每年的最大潮位值,采用极值Ⅰ型进行统计分析,得到不同设计频率风暴潮条件下的茅洲河水位,分析其漫堤风险。同时通过设计8个台风行进方向及5个登陆点进行风暴潮增水数值模拟实验,确定最大可能风暴潮移动参数及路径,分析最大可能风暴潮对茅洲河的漫堤风险影响。计算结果可为茅洲河综合治理提供重要技术支撑,同时也为应急管理和海洋、水利防灾减灾部门应急减灾提供决策参考。
关键词:  重现期风暴潮  最大可能风暴潮  漫堤风险  茅洲河  防灾减灾  南海潮汐风暴潮耦合模型
DOI:10.13656/j.cnki.gxkx.20210309.002
基金项目:
Risk Analysis of Flood Inundation by Storm Surge:A Case Study of Maozhou River
HOU Peng1,2, WANG Qisong1,2, PENG Shi3
(1.Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuarine Dynamics and Associated Process Regulation, Ministry of Water Resources, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510611, China;2.Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute, Pearl River Water Resources Commission, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510611, China;3.Development and Construction Authority of Nansha Mingzhu Bay in Guangzhou, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510611, China)
Abstract:
The assessment of storm surge disasters during the return period and the prediction of the maximum possible storm surge are of great significance for storm surge disaster prevention and mitigation.In this study,based on the analysis of the measured data,the tidal storm surge coupling model in the South China Sea was constructed to calculate and analyze the storm surge disasters that greatly influenced the Maozhou River throughout the history.On the basis of accurate verification,106 storm surges in recent 20 years were calculated and the annual maximum tide level of each year was obtained.The extreme value type I was used for statistical analysis to obtain the water level of Maozhou River under storm surges with different design frequencies and analyze the risk of flood inundation of Maozhou River.At the same time,through the design of eight typhoon directions and five landing points,the numerical experiment of storm surge was conducted to determine the maximum possible storm surge movement parameters and paths,and to analyze the influence of maximum possible storm surge on the risk of flood inundation of Maozhou River.The calculation results can provide important technical support for the comprehensive management of Maozhou River,and also provide decision-making reference for emergency management and emergency disaster reduction of marine and water conservancy disaster prevention and mitigation departments.
Key words:  storm surge during the return period  maximum possible storm surge  the risk of flood inundation  Maozhou River  disaster prevention and mitigation  the South China Sea coupling model

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