| 摘要: |
| 为分析居民患病现状以及确定居民骨质疏松症的风险因素，按广州城区划分选取城乡结合部40岁及以上的常驻居民为研究对象进行多阶段抽样调查，采用SPSS 20.0软件对其基本情况进行描述性分析和单因素分析，得出骨质疏松的影响因素，再进行多因素Logistics回归分析，量化各个因素与疾病之间的相关系数，并分别建立男性和女性骨质疏松风险评估模型，最后用接受者操作特性（Receiver Operating Characteristic，ROC）曲线和Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验对模型进行评价。结果表明：男性骨质疏松评分体系中，当所得分数在-7—-5分时属于低危组；在-4—-3分时属于中危组；在-2—1分时属于高危组。女性骨质疏松评分体系中，当女性所得分数在-52—-20分时属于低危组；在-20—-8分时属于中危组；在-8—47分时属于高危组。经验证，男性和女性3个危险分层的研究对象患病率都在模型预测范围内，男性和女性曲线下面积ROC-AUC分别为0.894和0.837。表明男性和女性骨质疏松风险评估模型预测的危险分层较为准确，评估效能较好，诊断价值较充分，可以较好地估计骨质疏松的发病风险，对评价个体健康状况、发现高危人群有重要的参考价值。 |
| 关键词: 骨质疏松 城乡结合部 风险评估模型 影响因素 危险分层 |
| DOI：10.13656/j.cnki.gxkx.20200803.001 |
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| 基金项目:广东省高校哲学社会科学重点实验室项目（2015WSYS0010）资助。 |
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| Construction of a Risk Assessment Model for Osteoporosis |
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LAN Chaohua, YAO Weiguang
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| (School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510515, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to analyze the current status of the residents and determine the risk factors of residents' osteoporosis,according to the urban division of Guangzhou,resident residents aged 40 and above in the urban-rural fringe are selected as the research objects for multi-stage sampling survey. SPSS 20.0 software was used to carry out the descriptive analysis and single analysis of the basic situation to obtain the influencing factors of osteoporosis. And then multi-factor Logistics regression analysis was carried out to quantify the correlation coefficient between each factor and the disease. The risk assessment model for male and female osteoporosis was established separately.Finally,the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to evaluate the model. The results of the study show that in the male osteoporosis scoring system,when the score is -7—-5 points,it belongs to the low-risk group; when the score is -4—-3 points,it belongs to the middle-risk group; when the score is -2-1 points,it belongs to the high-risk group. In the female osteoporosis scoring system,when a woman gets a score of -52—-20 points,she belongs to the low-risk group; when she gets a score of -20—-8 points,she belongs to the middle-risk group; when she gets a score of -8-47 points,she belongs to the high-risk group.It was verified that the prevalence rates of the three risk stratification subjects of male and female were within the prediction range of the model, and the area under the curve ROC-AUC of male and female were 0.894 and 0.837, respectively. The results show that the risk stratification predicted by male and female osteoporosis risk assessment model is more accurate, the assessment effect is better, and the diagnostic value is more sufficient. It can better estimate the risk of osteoporosis, and has important reference value for evaluating individual health status and finding high-risk groups. |
| Key words: osteoporosis rural-urban fringe risk assessment model influencing factors risk stratification |
