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李晖,翟禄新,王月,张天天,尹辉.桂林市近56年降水结构的时间变化分析[J].广西科学,2013,20(2):111-114,120. [点击复制]
- LI Hui,ZHAI Lu-xin,WANG Yue,ZHANG Tian-tian,YIN Hui.Time Variation of Precipitation Structure of Guilin during Recent 56 Years[J].Guangxi Sciences,2013,20(2):111-114,120. [点击复制]
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| 桂林市近56年降水结构的时间变化分析 |
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李晖1,2,3, 翟禄新2,3, 王月2,3, 张天天2,3, 尹辉4
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| (1.中国地质科学院岩溶地质研究所, 广西桂林 541004;2.广西师范大学环境与资源学院, 广西桂林 541004;3.珍稀濒危动植物生态与环境保护省部共建教育部重点实验室, 广西桂林 541004;4.惠州学院旅游系, 广东惠州 516007) |
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| 摘要: |
| 以桂林市1951~2006年的地面逐日降水资料为统计数据,采用线性回归方法,对桂林市近56年的年降水量、不同降水强度日数、降水极值、最大日降水量、最大连续降水量等指标的变化进行分析,并用降水距平百分率方法分析了56年来桂林市干旱事件发生的程度。结果显示:56年来桂林市降水量呈现略微上升的趋势,小、中雨强度的日数在略微增加,大雨以上的日数减少,而降水总日数也在减少,高强度降水集中程度加强;最长连续无降水日增加,降水量呈现集中的趋势;干旱的发生次数增多;近56年的降水量的变化是多种因素综合作用的结果。 |
| 关键词: 降水变化 线性分析 降水极值 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2013-01-15修订日期：2013-02-05 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(41071067);广西自然科学基金项目(2013GXNSFBA019222),桂林市科学研究与技术开发项目(20110120-6,20120122-2),广西师范大学教育基金会教师成长基金项目(JS2012012)资助。 |
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| Time Variation of Precipitation Structure of Guilin during Recent 56 Years |
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LI Hui1,2,3, ZHAI Lu-xin2,3, WANG Yue2,3, ZHANG Tian-tian2,3, YIN Hui4
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| (1.Institute of Karst Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Guilin, Guangxi, 541004, China;2.School of Environment & Resources, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin, Guangxi, 541004, China;3.Key Laboratory of Ecology of Rare and Endangered Species and Environmental Protection, Ministry of Education, Guilin, Guangxi, 541004, China;4.Tourism Department, Huizhou University, Huizhou, Guangdong, 516007, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The 1951~2006 meteorological data of Guilin precipitations were provided by the Central Meteorological Observatory.Through the linear regression method, recent 56-year precipitation changes were analyzed, including annual precipitation,different intensity of precipitation days,precipitation extremes,the maximum daily precipitation,maximum continuous precipitationthe and so on.The results showed that the precipitation change of Guilin for recent 56 years was resulted from multiple factors.Guilin precipitation revealed slight upward trend.Under different intensities,small and moderate intensities had a slight increase in the number of days, while the number of days about the heavy rain reduced and the total number of precipitation days also reduced. High-intensity precipitations were strengthened by the time concentration, towards which the longest continuous precipitation increased.Frequency of drought increased, of which the extent of the drought events were analyzed by the precipitation anomaly percentage.This study provide the basis for drought and flood disasters of Guilin City in recent years. |
| Key words: precipitation changes linear analysis extreme precipitation |
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