| 摘要: |
| 根据35座世界最大体积水库上下游224个地区建坝前后的年降水量和月降水量,分析探讨中国三峡水库对其周边地区降水模式的影响。结果表明,这些大水库对其周边地区降水模式的影响是:增加平均年降水量尤其是在下游地区,不影响平均月降水量,增加最小降水量,减少最大降水量。大水库有助于其周边地区抵抗极端降水。在最佳状况下,三峡水库能够抵消最大降水和最小降水的不利影响,有17/35的机率增加上下游地区的年降水量,有可能使最小降水量增加10%~120%,将最大降水量减少20%;在最差状况下,三峡水库有可能加强最大降水量和最小降水量的不利影响,有3/35的机率减少上下游地区的年降水量,2/27的机率减少下游地区的年降水量,可以使下游地区的最小降水量降低20%。 |
| 关键词: 降水 水库 周边地区 三峡水库 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2012-02-07修订日期：2012-03-26 |
| 基金项目:广西自然科学基金项目(10-046-06,2010GXNSFF013003,11-031-11)资助。 |
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| Probabilistic Study on Influence of Three Gorges Reservoir in China on Precipitation of Its Upstream and Downstream Regions |
|
YAN Shao-min1, WU Guang1,2
|
| (1.National Engineering Research Center for Non-food Biorefinery, Guangxi Academy of Sciences, Nanning, Guangxi, 530007, China;2.DreamSciTech Consulting, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518054, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The precipitations in 35 world largest volume reservoirs were analyzed in order to find out their precipitation patterns. The precipitation patterns were obtained from the analyses of the annual and monthly precipitations of 224 upstream and downstream regions around the 35 reservoirs between predam and postdam periods. The results show that those reservoirs have increased the average annual precipitation especially in downstream regions, no influence on the average monthly precipitation, increased the minimal precipitation, and decreased the maximal precipitation. This study reveals huge advantage of world largest reservoirs for their surrounding regions because they can help to resist to the extreme precipitations, which provides probabilistic evidence to explore possible impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir on the precipitation patterns of its surrounding areas. At the best scenario, the Three Gorges Reservoir would have 17/35 chances to increase the annual precipitations in its both upstream and downstream regions, the chance to increase the minimal precipitation to 120% from 10%, and the chance to decrease the maximal precipitation up to 20%. At the worst scenario, the Three Gorges Reservoir would have 3/35 chances to decrease the annual precipitations in both upstream and downstream regions and 2/27 chances to decrease the annual precipitations in downstream regions, and the chance to decrease the minimal precipitation up to 20% in downstream regions. |
| Key words: precipitation reservoirs surrounding location Three Gorges Reservoir |
