| 摘要: |
| 对灰色关联方法在农业自然灾害系统分析中的应用进行了探讨。认为,农业自然灾害对干农业生产的影响完全有别于生产资料投入的作用。当系统特征行为序列(χo)为增长序列,相关因素序列(χi)亦为增长序列时,不能就此判定χo与χo为正相关关系而直接进行建模。当促进因素的作用大于抑制因素的作用时,即使灾害的危害有所增加,农业生产仍可表现为一个增长序列。提出判定关联性的命题应为:设系统特征行为序列为χo,相关因素序列为χi,则,1°当影响因素的性质一致时(如均为促进或抑制),设χo为增长序列,若x1为增长序列,则x1与χo呈正相关关系;若χi为衰减序列,则χi与χo呈负相关关系。2°当系统主行为受性质不一致的因索(包含促进和抑制因素)影响时,若χi的增长促使χo增长或衰减趋势减弱,χi的衰减使χo衰减或增长趋势减弱,则χi与χo呈正相关关系;若χi增长促使χi衰减或增长趋势减弱、χi衰减使χo增长或衰减趋势减弱,则χi与χo为负相关关系。 |
| 关键词: 农业自然灾害系统 灰色关联分析 关联性质判定 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：1994-12-03 |
| 基金项目: |
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| On the Application of the Grey Relational Method to the Natural Disaster Systematic Analysis of Agriculture |
|
Li Xiankun
|
| (Guangxi Institute of Botsny, Yanshan, Guilin, Guangxi, 541006) |
| Abstract: |
| The application of grey relational method to the natural disaster systematic analysis of agriculture was discusse the author's own view on it has been raised which are opposite sides for agriculture be influenced by the disasters and affecting for the means of producible. When the system action characteristic series (SACS) x.was a growth series and the factors series (FS) was also a growth series, the relationship was not necessarily to be positive between xo and xo and thus not directly to construct the grey model. When the effect of promoting factors was stronger than thus not directly factors, though the endangerment of disasters rised to some extent, the agricultural production may remain showing a growth series' In the present paper, the theorem for diciding rolational character was proposed. Defining there are the SACS (Reference Series) xo and FS xi (i=1, 2,.., n). Theorem 1° when the factors character shows no difference (all progress or all decrease), Let xo is a growth series, thus:if xi is also the growth series, then the relational character is positive between xi and xo; if xi is the decrease series, then the relational character is negative between xi and xo. 2° when the factors character shows difference (include progress and decrease), thus:if the xi increase impels the xo increase or abate its trend of declining, and the xi decrease causes the xo decrease or weakens its trend of increase, then the relational character is positive between xi and xo; if the xi. increase makes the xo decrease or weakens its increase trend, and the xi decrease makes the xo increase or alleviates its decrease trend, then the relational character is negative between xi. and xo. |
| Key words: the natural disaster system of agriculture grey relational analysis decide relational character |
